In a significant escalation of tensions in South Sudan, the government announced today that First Vice President Riek Machar has been arrested on charges of inciting rebellion, a move that experts warn may threaten the fragile peace in the nation. This sudden development comes as fears mount that the conflict could spiral back into a full-scale civil war, reminiscent of the tragedies that engulfed the country in 2013 and 2016.

Reports indicate that Machar, a longstanding adversary of President Salva Kiir, was taken into custody on Wednesday—a situation that has prompted swift international condemnation and calls for restraint from various quarters. In a bid to mediate the growing unrest, former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga has been dispatched to South Sudan to engage in diplomatic discussions with top leadership.

The political landscape has shifted dramatically following Machar's detention. His party maintains that this action has effectively dismantled the 2018 peace agreement, which was instrumental in ending a protracted civil war between Kiir's Dinka forces and the Nuer fighters loyal to Machar. Government spokesperson and Information Minister Michael Makuei claimed that Machar and his associates within the SPLM/A-IO (Machar's faction) would face investigations for allegedly inciting their supporters to disrupt peace efforts and thwart impending elections.

"The Peace Agreement has not collapsed and shall not under any circumstances," Makuei asserted, while accusing Machar of plotting to return the country to chaos. As tensions rise, there has been no immediate response from Machar’s camp regarding these serious allegations.

In recent days, clashes between government forces and Machar's followers have erupted, particularly in the northeast region around Nasir, which has witnessed violent encounters and has led to the arrests of several high-profile figures close to Machar, including the petroleum minister and the deputy chief of the army.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed grave concern over the deteriorating situation, emphasizing that the peace process is faltering. He urged South Sudanese leaders to prioritize peace over personal ambitions: "Let’s not mince words: What we are seeing is darkly reminiscent of the 2013 and 2016 civil wars, which killed 400,000 people," Guterres remarked during a news conference in New York.

Kenyan President William Ruto, now acting as mediator for the East African Community bloc, has engaged in discussions with Kiir regarding the volatile situation surrounding Machar. Following a meeting with the South Sudanese president, Odinga flew to Uganda for further negotiations with President Yoweri Museveni, whose troops have been deployed to South Sudan this month to bolster the government's security efforts.

Amidst these developments, forecasts from political analysts suggest that Kiir may be using Machar's arrest as a strategic move to consolidate power, further illustrated by the appointment of his close adviser Benjamin Bol Mel as second vice president.

"This situation distracts from Juba's real political crisis—plummeting oil revenues and the contentious succession plans of Salva Kiir," noted Justin Lynch, managing director of Conflict Insights Group, highlighting the underlying issues that continue to affect South Sudan's stability.

As the world watches closely, the potential ramifications of Machar’s arrest extend beyond individual political rivalries, posing a significant threat to the peace and security of an already fragile nation.